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Linux
On The Fast Track
Over the next five years, Linux will grow faster than all
other operating systems combined, according to a new study. On the strength of support from such major players as IBM,
Intel and Compaq Computer, Linux is emerging as a major player in the server
operating system market, moving beyond its core "ABM"--Anything But
Microsoft--market, said Dan Kusnetsky, an International Data Corporation
analyst. "Linux has done fairly well on the server side, but doesn't have
the same penetration on the client," said Kusnetsky. IDC today released its
projections for the operating system market over the next five years, including
Linux as a separate category for the first time. Linux shipments will grow 25 percent over the next five years,
compared to 12 percent growth for all server operating systems and 10 percent
growth for all client operating systems, IDC reports. Linux is growing at a rate
of 23 percent per year, bringing it to the No. 2 position behind Microsoft's
Windows NT by 2003, Kusnetsky said. IDC only measured commercial Linux
shipments, Kusnetsky said, so the actual figure for Linux's growth will
invariably be larger. Linux, a variant of the Unix operating system, is
available for free download off the Internet. Packaged commercial versions of
the open source operating system can also be purchased from such companies as
Red Hat and Caldera. Still, Linux is nowhere near dominating the market: Currently,
Windows NT accounts for 38.6 percent of the server software market, with Linux's
market share hovering just over 17 percent, according to IDC. But Linux's appeal
as a low cost server option for computing intensive industries like content and
multimedia creation is expected to grow over the next five years, while it will
continue to do well in its historical strongholds like academic, research,
scientific, and engineering computing. A Linux drawback on the server side is the high level of
expertise needed to work with the platform, Kusnetsky said. "The level of
expertise needed is very high, the installation process is not simple, nor is
getting it to recognize all the devices, because obscure devices don't have
Linux drivers," he said, adding: "This is all being worked on."
To gain widespread acceptance in the desktop PC market, Linux will have to
overcome several obstacles. Consumers purchase PCs based on the breadth of
applications available, Kusnetsky noted, and Linux does not yet support many of
the most popular desktop applications, such as the Microsoft Office suite. "Most users buy a platform because they have to, not
because they want to. They have a list of applications they wish to use, and
select the platform those applications are available for," he said.
"We believe that this is one of the major impediments to the growth of
Linux as a client operating system." Although Microsoft's non-support of Linux is an obstacle,
Kusnetsky noted that several companies are working on more user-friendly
interfaces for the platform, as well as new Linux office suites. "There's
not a single thing on the impediments list that isn't being addressed by one
company or another," he said. "The Linux community knows the
weaknesses of their products and are working very hard to address all of the
concerns." Additionally, Linux may have appeal as a client operating system
in medical and vertical markets that do not use office suite applications, he
said. "Nobody knows or cares what the operating system is under the
database, as long as the software responds." Copyright (C)
1998-1999 The Active Network. All rights reserved.
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